NCAA Tournament Edition Of The Pinnacle Pulse

20 March 2006

March Madness is here and millions are completing tournament brackets. The first 32 games are the easiest to analyze -- knowing nothing about the teams and looking at the spreads for each game at PinnacleSports.com can give an idea of each game's outcome.

Occasionally, a lower seed is favored to beat a higher seed -- demonstrating a clear advantage for those looking at the point spreads. For example, #7 California is a 1.5 point underdog to #10 N.C. State. Players unaware of the spread are more likely to select California than N.C. State because of the seeding, despite the market's confidence in N.C. State.

Using the spreads at Pinnacle Sportsbook can also give a feel for the strength of each team in the NCAA tournament. One way to use these is to identify «vulnerable» teams -- ones that are underdogs or favored to win by 2 points or less. If in an office pool, generally selecting the winner of that game to advance past the next round isn't advisable.

Take the Atlanta region, where #5 Syracuse is a 1-point favorite over #12 Texas A&M. The winner plays the winner of #4 LSU (-7.5) vs. #13 Iona. Whether Syracuse or Texas A&M advances, either team has a substantial chance of being eliminated. If one picks LSU to beat Iona, it makes sense to go with LSU against the Syracuse/A&M winner, since LSU is considered more likely to advance based on their odds to win the tournament. At the time of writing, LSU is 50/1, Syracuse is 70/1 and Texas A&M is 200/1 to win the tourney.

Which teams may under-perform in the first several rounds? In the Atlanta region, #7 California faces a chance of being eliminated in the first round. If first round games are worth 1 point, determine the expected value (EV) of each selection by looking at the moneyline. In the N.C. State/California game, N.C. State is a -123 favorite, while California is at +113. Since Pinnacle Sports only uses a 10-cent line, the no-vig line on this game is N.C. State -118. These markets are deadly accurate and can be used to estimate the chances of each team winning.

For a favorite, the chance of it winning is (ML/ML-100). In this case, it would be (-118/-118-100) = (-118/-218) = 54.1%. N.C. State has an EV of 0.54 points, while Cal is worth 0.46 points. In this case, using spreads and moneylines to help make bracket picks added 0.08 points of EV. If one felt lucky and picked California, they'd want to fade Cal in the next match-up, as each subsequent round would cost EV in the bracket.

Consider these tips for completing the NCAA tournament bracket and take a look at how the players been betting these tourney games.

Xavier (+5.5 -104) vs. Gonzaga

This game looked like it had the potential to be a classic Sharps vs. the public battle and it hasn't disappointed. At Pinnacle Sportsbook Gonzaga opened at -3 where it was ferociously bet up to Gonzaga -6 ½ by the public. Since then, sharp money has steadily pushed the line back down to Gonzaga -5.5 where it has now settled. If early indications are anything to go by, this match-up will be the most heavily bet game in the entire first round.

Davidson (+10.5 -103) vs. Ohio St.

The line on this game opened with Ohio State -13 and it was quickly bet down to -11.5. Since then the number steadily fell with unopposed sharp money facing little resistance from the public as the line now sits at -10.5. Public money will likely come in on Ohio St. in single digits as post draws nearer. Thus far however, the game has seen the most powerful wave of one-way money and suggests that professionals feel #15 Davidson has a legitimate shot versus the Buckeyes.

NC State (-1.5 -108) vs. California

In what could be considered a metaphor for what a traditional March Madness game is all about, this game has flip-flopped a half dozen times already. California started as a 1.5 point favorite, which quickly shortened to 1. Since then there's been a prolonged duel with favoritism changing amid heavy wiseguy trading on both sides. However, it looks like NC State has prevailed - for the time being at least -- settling with the Wolfpack as a 1.5 point favorite.

NCAA Tournament Winner Odds

UConn is a heavy public favorite. The Huskies initially opened at +315 and pre-selection trading drove them down to +250 to win the tourney. After the brackets were announced, UConn money dried up and the price drifted back to +300.

Kansas was also heavily traded, especially after selections were announced. After initially offering them at +3500, post-selection action from sharps quickly drove it down to +2279.

Although Duke won the ACC tournament, players have been slow to back them. The Blue Devils opened at +350, drifting up to +412 before the conference championships. After winning their tournament, Duke has continued to move up to +502. This might be in part to a strong #2 seed in Texas being placed with Duke in the Atlanta Region.

Villanova poses an unusual challenge for bettors with the uncertainty of Allan Ray. In the Big East tournament, Ray suffered an eye injury that turned out to be much less serious than first considered. Players have been reluctant to back Villanova despite Ray being cleared to play. Villanova opened at +940 and has drifted to +1007 in moderate trading.

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NCAA Tournament Edition Of The Pinnacle Pulse

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